THE EFFECT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ON INDUSTRY-LEVEL TRADE FLOWS IN CZECHIA
The relationship between exchange rates and international trade belongs among the topics that have attracted considerable interest in both academic research and policy making. An extensive body of literature has been published, particularly since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which brought about ﬂoating exchange rates of the major world currencies and increased exchange rate uncertainty. The effects of exchange rate on international trade can be examined from various perspectives.
Jméno a příjmení autora:
Jana Šimáková, Daniel Stavárek
Exchange rate, industry-level data, trade balance, cointegration, vector error correction model, gravity model
DOI (& full text):
This paper is the ﬁrst study to use the disaggregated data of the Czech foreign trade to examine the effect of exchange rate levels and volatility on trade ﬂows. Czechia is the appropriate economy to…více
This paper is the ﬁrst study to use the disaggregated data of the Czech foreign trade to examine the effect of exchange rate levels and volatility on trade ﬂows. Czechia is the appropriate economy to study this phenomenon because it is heavily involved in foreign trade predominantly owned by international investors and has been applying a ﬂoating exchange rate arrangement for many years. We analyze the period from 1993 to 2013 and disaggregate the data according to trading partner and product category. While the effect of exchange rate level is examined by a modiﬁed vector error correction model the effect of exchange rate volatility is analyzed through an extended gravity model. The detailed results obtained from empirical estimations clearly show that the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade in Czechia does not completely correspond with the theoretical assumptions. We revealed that domestic currency depreciation worsens in the long-term trade balance in substantial parts of the Czech foreign trade, such as in the trade of machinery and transport equipment with Germany, Austria and France. The classical J-curve effect was conﬁrmed only for the trading of beverages and tobacco with Italy and for the trading of manufactured goods with Slovakia. We also found that an increased exchange rate volatility does not necessarily reduce foreign trade turnover, as the results for crude materials, fuels, chemical and manufactured products indicate. By contrast, the theoretical expectation of negative impact of volatility was validated for machinery, transport equipment, food and animals. Therefore, although Czechia is a small, open economy, the exchange rate effects on foreign trade signiﬁcantly differ in magnitude and direction across the trading partners and product groups.