Podstata a aplikace konvergenčního kritéria stability devizového kurzu


Finance

Podstata a aplikace konvergenčního kritéria stability devizového kurzu

Jméno a příjmení autora:

Daniel Stavárek

Rok:
2007
Číslo:
2
Klíčová slova:
exchange rate stability criterion, ERM II, asymmetric fluctuation band
DOI (& full text):
Anotace:
The exchange rate stability criterion belongs to the group of convergence criteria which must be fulfilled by every EU Member State aiming to join the Eurozone and introduce the euro currency. …více
The exchange rate stability criterion belongs to the group of convergence criteria which must be
fulfilled by every EU Member State aiming to join the Eurozone and introduce the euro currency.
These criteria are focused on stability of prices (inflation), stability of the long-term interest rates,
exchange rate stability and fiscal stability measured by the budget deficit ration on GDP and public
debt ratio on GDP. The exchange rate stability criterion is the only criterion whose fulfillment conditions
are not set explicitly and, thus, it is a subject of many discussions. Moreover, the exchange
rate stability criterion requires a change in the economic policy, particularly in the exchange rate
regime because participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II is strictly required. This paper
aims to assess the exchange rate stability criterion comprehensively emphasizing the core of
the criterion and its all essential aspects. Moreover, the paper aims to predict the approach of
European Central Bank and European Commission to the evaluation of the criterion fulfillment in
the case of the Visegrad countries. After a detailed description of the criterion main aspects and
elements, previously published publications along with statements and declarations of all relevant
European authorities are surveyed. Finally, all findings allow us to come to the conclusion that it is
highly probable that the asymmetric fluctuation band (maximum appreciation deviations from the
central parity 15% and maximum depreciation deviations 2.25%) will be applied and short-lasting
slightly excessive depreciation deviations will be tolerated. Preferably, the excessive deviations
should occur at the beginning of the evaluation period and should be traded-off by a subsequent
smooth and stable exchange rate development.
Sekce:
Finance

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