A MONTE CARLO METHOD SIMULATION OF THE EUROPEAN FUNDS THAT CAN BE ACCESSED BY ROMANIA IN 2014-2020
In the economic, econometric and demographic literature, there coexist a few concepts, seemingly similar but signiﬁcantly different, whose purposes are predictive, intended to restructure and optimize, but also from a natural scientiﬁc need to know, understand, predict or prevent processes and systems; such concepts as forecasting, estimation, designing, assessing, planning, prediction and prospecting (Săvoiu, 2007, p. 351) and, last but not least, the simulation.
Jméno a příjmení autora:
Gheorghe Săvoiu, Emil Burtescu, Vasile Dinu, Ligian Tudoroiu
Simulation, Monte Carlo, European funds earmarked, EU funds accessed, the current absorption rate and the actual rate, revenue (in advance)
C53 - Forecasting Methods - Simulation Methods
C63 - Computational Techniques - Simulation Modeling
E17 - General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E27 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F47 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
DOI (& full text):
The authors dealt with ﬁnding some relevant simulation solutions for the value of the European funds that can be accessed by Romania in the second budget cycle (2014-2020) of the European Union (EU),…více
The authors dealt with ﬁnding some relevant simulation solutions for the value of the European funds that can be accessed by Romania in the second budget cycle (2014-2020) of the European Union (EU), in which the national economy is participating after the 2007 accession. The article presents, in a brief conceptual introduction, the option for simulation, not only as economical and statistical alternative but also as conceptual and technical method, followed by an analysis section for the EU funds accessed by Romania in the 2007-2013 ﬁnancial period and in the ﬁrst three years of 2014-2020 ﬁnancial period, with a role in generating hypotheses and scenarios of a type of modelling the process of accessing and speciﬁc absorption (including all types of rates, from the current absorption rate to the actual rate, with revenue in advance, etc.). A methodology section describes the rationale for selecting the method of simulation as Monte Carlo, and also the main hypotheses, detailed scenarios and integrated characteristic variables. The scenario-making eventually shaped three options by combining criteria of stability/instability, nuanced by optimistic/ pessimistic type scenarios. The analysis of the variables described by a probability distribution was conducted statistically on several types of samples simulated by the Monte Carlo method, from 100 draws to 200; 300; 400; and ﬁnally 500 and 1,000 draws. A presentation of the ﬁnal simulation results and a number of major comments regarding their calibration, confrontation, clarity and statistical analysis, together with some ﬁnal remarks as conclusions, limitations and perspectives, end the research approach.