A MODEL OF INTERNAL MIGRATION: AN EXTENDED NEO-CLASSICAL MIGRATION MODEL AND EVALUATION OF REGIONAL MIGRATION DETERMINANTS IN POLAND
Population migration continues to be a current topic linked to a wide spectrum of various external and internal factors on both international and regional levels. In contemporary literature, there is a whole score of empirical studies that deal with international migration, its determinants and impacts on the economy. However, there are only few empirical studies that deal primarily with solely regional (i.e. internal) migration in comparison to the large number of studies analyzing international migration, which is one of the main reasons for the selection of the topic of this study and its focus on internal migration and thus on movements that take place within one geopolitical entity, usually a nationstate (for more on the definition of internal migration, see, e.g., Fendel, 2014; Royuela & Ordóñez, 2016). So-called “gravity models” stemming from an analogy to Newton’s law of gravity and Ravenstein’s laws of migration are often used for modelling internal migration and the study of it, or for the analysis of the main determinates that impact these internal fluctuations of citizens; however, these gravity models of migration are often criticized for their insufficient theoretical foundation.
Jméno a příjmení autora:
Pavlína Hejduková, Lucie Kureková
Regional migration, model, panel data, econometric analysis, Poland
DOI (& full text):
The goal of this paper was to carry out an empirical verification of the theoretical model of internal migration and evaluate the influence of selected determinants on internal migration in Poland.…více
The goal of this paper was to carry out an empirical verification of the theoretical model of internal migration and evaluate the influence of selected determinants on internal migration in Poland. In order to achieve this goal, an analysis of internal migration in Poland and an econometric analysis were carried out. The analysis was processed using data from 16 voivodeships (i.e. on the NUTS2 level); the analyzed period was from 2003 to 2017. Based on selected theoretical concepts of migration and present studies on internal migration, the theoretical model of internal migration was specified. A total of five models were estimated; first, four models were estimated for all voivodeships and subsequently a GLS estimate was carried out with the so-called “strong region”. Results of the econometric analysis show that regional wage differences together with differences in the unemployment rate determined internal migration, which is in agreement with the assumptions of neo-classical economy. The positive relationship was indicated between the degree of migration and its delayed variable last year, which points simultaneously to the validity of the assumption of the theory of cumulative causation. The test of the dummy variable has shown that the degree of regional migration increased in the period of crisis. From the perspective of push and pull factors, pull factors in the host region were the following determinants: wage, demand for work in the industrial sector of the economy, and foreign human capital; on the contrary, push factors included the increasing unemployment rate, housing costs and the degree of urbanization.