DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED EU COUNTRIES
The financial crisis of 2007/2008, known as the global financial crisis, caused by a combination of an asset price bubble in the real estate sector and a credit bubble leading to excessive leverage, highlighted the importance of the household sector for financial stability of the whole economy. Easy to get a loan and the belief that the house prices would appreciate encouraged more borrowers to get into debt. American households and financial institutions became deeply indebted. At the end of 2007, American households’ total loans and debt securities relative to the GDP was 98.55% (International Monetary Fund, 2020). Mortgage defaults caused by the financial crisis affected financial stability also in European countries. The household sector can influence the economy mainly due to its size and position on the financial markets, but on the other hand, the economic situation of households is also affected by various social, economic, and political changes.
Jméno a příjmení autora:
Nikola Šubová, Ladislav Mura, Ján Buleca
Household, vulnerability, indebtedness, regression analysis
DOI (& full text):
Household debt has been increasing in the last decades, and it poses a threat not only to the financial stability of households but is a precursor of the economic and financial crisis. A downturn…více
Household debt has been increasing in the last decades, and it poses a threat not only to the financial stability of households but is a precursor of the economic and financial crisis. A downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic is expected to deepening inequalities, mainly due to the inability of households to repay existing debts or finance basic living needs. Understanding the determinants of household indebtedness and financial vulnerability is crucial for policymakers who process measures to prevent increasing household indebtedness. This paper investigates the determinants of household financial vulnerability in euro area countries using the Household Finance and Consumption Survey micro-dataset collected by the European Central Bank. The quantitative approach was applied using ordinary least square and quantile estimation procedures. The difference between OLS and quantile estimations showed the appropriateness of using the quantile regression approach. Performance analysis proved that only the number of elderly and the value of wealth and existence of mortgage interest tax relief statistically significant affects the level of vulnerability in all three waves. While the increasing number of elderly and greater value of household wealth lowers the vulnerability, the effect of mortgage interest tax relief differs across individual waves. All other used factors are essential and statistically significant for the financial vulnerability of households as well, but the importance and significance could differ across the distribution and individual waves. The effect of financial assets, education, and employment were found to be negative in all observations of all waves. On the other hand, the number of children and the value of households’ real assets is associated with increased financial vulnerability indicators.