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EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF LONG MEMORY AND ASYMMETRY EFFECTS FOR THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FORECASTING VOLATILITY OF RETURNS ON THE COMMODITY MARKET BASED ON THE EXAMPLE OF GOLD AND SILVER

Bogdan Włodarczyk, Ireneusz Miciuła

Risk management is one of the most dynamically developed areas in economic sciences. One of the main driving forces for this development has been the practical challenge resulting from increasing financial risk. Risk management is a process in which key role is played by risk measurement (Jajuga, 2016). Comparison of various forecasting models and selection of the best ones for particular markets is of key importance in many fields of economics and finance. Theoretic aspects concerning commodity markets very often concentrate on relations between changes in commodity prices and on the news impact on rates of return. However, up until now studies concerning conditional volatility of returns on commodity markets and market risk have been less comprehensive than those concerning conditions affecting prices and rates of return. Nevertheless, studies concerning market volatility are becoming increasingly popular due to the growth of market volatility itself and the significance of commodities as investment assets (Kang, 2013; Thuraisamy, 2013; Vivian, 2012). The growing interest also results from the fact that commodity rates of return have some empirically verifiable features such as non-normal distribution, asymmetry, structural breaks and fat tails (Aloui, 2010; Cheng, 2011).
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A MONTE CARLO METHOD SIMULATION OF THE EUROPEAN FUNDS THAT CAN BE ACCESSED BY ROMANIA IN 2014-2020

Gheorghe Săvoiu, Emil Burtescu, Vasile Dinu, Ligian Tudoroiu

In the economic, econometric and demographic literature, there coexist a few concepts, seemingly similar but significantly different, whose purposes are predictive, intended to restructure and optimize, but also from a natural scientific need to know, understand, predict or prevent processes and systems; such concepts as forecasting, estimation, designing, assessing, planning, prediction and prospecting (Săvoiu, 2007, p. 351) and, last but not least, the simulation.
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