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IMPACT OF STOCK MARKETS ON THE ECONOMY IN THE V4 COUNTRIES

Radmila Krkošková

The performance of the economy should generally reflect the performance of stock markets. Production increases, prices rise, and companies’ profits increase if the economy grows. And the shares should naturally make the profits (which means among other things, higher dividends) even more attractive. But is that really true? The aim of the article is to find out the relationship between the development of stock markets and the economic growth in Visegrad Group countries (V4). The subject of the survey is both the long-term relationship and the short-term relationship in the course of economic cycles. The article uses the tools of time series econometrics, especially VECMs, including corresponding diagnostics, Granger causality and block erogeneity. The relationships between the variables examined vary from country to country. The long-term relationship between the development of stock markets and the economic growth was confirmed in Slovakia and Hungary. It was confirmed that the GDP growth rate influenced the growth rate of stock indices in all V4 countries. The opposite relationship (the stock index growth rate influences the GDP growth rate) was not confirmed only in the Czech Republic. Quarterly data for the period from 2005/Q1 to 2018/Q4 was used for the analysis. This period was selected because all of the V4 countries have been members of the European Union since 2004. The EViews software version 9 was used for the calculations. Variables used in this research are: the GDP, the stock Exchange index of the country and stock trading volume. The PX, SAX, BUX and WIG20 stock indices are considered to be the crucial representatives of individual stock markets in this work.
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METHODOLOGY OF INDUSTRY STATISTICS: AVERAGES, QUANTILES, AND RESPONSES TO ATYPICAL VALUES

Martin Boďa, Vladimír Úradníček

The paper notices troublesome aspects of compiling industry statistics for the purpose of inter-enterprise comparison in corporate financial analysis. Whilst making a caveat that this issue is unbeknownst to practitioners and underrated by theorists, the goal of the paper is two-fold. For one thing, the paper demonstrates that financial ratios are inclined to frequency distributions characteristic of power-law (fat) tails and their typical shape precludes a simple treatment. For the other, the paper explores different approaches to compiling industry statistics by considering trimming and winsorizing cleansing protocols, and by confronting trimmed, winsorized as well as quantile measures of central tendency. The issues are empirically illustrated on data for a great number of Slovak construction enterprises for two years, 2009 and 2018. The empirical distribution of eight financial ratios is studied for troublesome features such as asymmetry and power-law (fat) tails that hamper usefulness of traditional descriptive measures of location without considering different possibilities of handling atypical values (such as infinite and outlying values). The confrontation of diverse approaches suggests a plausible route to compiling industry statistics that consists in reporting a 25% trimmed mean alongside 25% and 75% quantiles, all applied to trimmed data (i.e. data after discarding infinite values). The paper also highlights the sorely unnoticed fact that the key ratio of financial analysis, return on equity, may easily attain non-sense values and these should be removed prior to compiling financial analysis; otherwise, industry statistics is biased upward regardless of what measure of central tendency is made use of.
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EXPLORING THE GIBSON LAW IN CEE COUNTRIES USING A TIME SERIES APPROACH

Marinko Škare, Daniel Tomić, Małgorzata Porada-Rochoń

Sympathetic movement between the nominal interest rate on long-term government bonds and the price level first observed by Gibson (1923) remains an open academic debate. Academic debates on Gibson paradox range from being nothing more than a spurious statistical relation to a fact strongly disputing standard micro and macroeconomic theory. The debate today is revived in a period of historic low-interest rates and deflation in many world economies. Keynes (1930/2011) speaks of the observed relation as the most completely established empirical fact in economics.
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SHLUKOVÁ ANALÝZA DOMÁCNOSTÍ CHARAKTERIZOVANÝCH KATEGORIÁLNÍMI UKAZATELI

Hana Řezanková, Tomáš Löster

Při šetření životních podmínek domácností jsou uplatňovány různé způsoby klasifikace domácností (podle vzdělání, pracovní aktivity, pracovní intenzity, klasifikace podle EU či OECD). V tomto článku naznačíme možnosti klasifikace domácností podle jejich finančních možností, a to na základě shlukové analýzy s využitím kategoriálních ukazatelů.
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Aktuárské modely pre poistenie kritických chorób

Lea Škrovánková, Michal Šoltés

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