Ceny ropy: tendence, problémy, perspektivy
Name and surname of author:
Jiří Fárek, Jaroslav Foltýn
Oil prices–hike, oil shocks, first and second–round negative effects, oil and gas reserves, energy consumption perspectives
DOI (& full text):
This article deals with the new quality of situation in recent price – hikes of crude oil as the most important fossile source of energy. It analyses the post war development which started rather…more
This article deals with the new quality of situation in recent price – hikes of crude oil as the most important fossile source of energy. It analyses the post war development which started rather smoothly, but was interrupted by two oil shocks and one mini – shock since the 70’s until 90’s. The recent situation is quite different and no historical parallels or experiences cannot be used as for trends, first–round effects, nor the second–round ones. Recent price growth is lasting for almost a decade already, since 1998 with only minor spells. The authors are identifying some consequences and distinctive features of this rise, trying to introduce structural and geographical analysis for the world economy and international trade. They come into conclusion that the perspective is far from a good one and the prices will grow nominally and in real terms for a longer-term future. That is why the preparation for that is a sheer necessity in many aspects, which the limited frame of the article can only discuss in a rather scatchy way. Specific development of the recently steep falling of prices since September 2008 is not any supply – generated oil shock. It is interconnected with global economic crunch and will probably show parallel trend. It brings about, anyway, some new general postulates the reaction about which the authors try to deal with too.