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NONLINEAR ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF BITCOIN RETURN’S VOLATILITY

Tao Yin, Yiming Wang

Since it was proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto (2008) at the end of 2008, Bitcoin, as an alternative to conventional currencies, has quickly gained wide attention from the media, investors and scholars. This attention is attributed to its transparency, simplicity, increasing popularity, decentralized peer-to-peer system and self-regulation. There is a growing interest in studying the general dynamics of Bitcoin market. For instance, diversification was measured (Brière et al., 2015; Bouri et al., 2017; Urquhart & Zhang, 2019; Chaim & Laurini, 2018; Lahmiri et al., 2018), statistical properties and market efficiency were examined (Bariviera et al., 2017; Carbone et al., 2004; Martinez et al., 2018; McCarthy, 2009; Symitsi & Chalvatzis, 2018), liquidity and microstructure were explored (Koutmos, 2018; Dyhrberg et al., 2018; Donier & Bonart, 2015), speculative bubble and risk were investigated (Osterrieder & Lorenz, 2017; Bouoiyour et al., 2015; Klein et al., 2018), regulation was studied (Dwyer, 2015; Tasca & Liu, 2018; Katsiampa, 2017) whilst optimal trading was scrutinized (Ajaz & Kumar, 2018; Li & Tourin, 2016; Yi et al., 2018).
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