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NONLINEAR ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF BITCOIN RETURN’S VOLATILITY

Tao Yin, Yiming Wang

Since it was proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto (2008) at the end of 2008, Bitcoin, as an alternative to conventional currencies, has quickly gained wide attention from the media, investors and scholars. This attention is attributed to its transparency, simplicity, increasing popularity, decentralized peer-to-peer system and self-regulation. There is a growing interest in studying the general dynamics of Bitcoin market. For instance, diversification was measured (Brière et al., 2015; Bouri et al., 2017; Urquhart & Zhang, 2019; Chaim & Laurini, 2018; Lahmiri et al., 2018), statistical properties and market efficiency were examined (Bariviera et al., 2017; Carbone et al., 2004; Martinez et al., 2018; McCarthy, 2009; Symitsi & Chalvatzis, 2018), liquidity and microstructure were explored (Koutmos, 2018; Dyhrberg et al., 2018; Donier & Bonart, 2015), speculative bubble and risk were investigated (Osterrieder & Lorenz, 2017; Bouoiyour et al., 2015; Klein et al., 2018), regulation was studied (Dwyer, 2015; Tasca & Liu, 2018; Katsiampa, 2017) whilst optimal trading was scrutinized (Ajaz & Kumar, 2018; Li & Tourin, 2016; Yi et al., 2018).
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THE IMPACT OF INTRADAY MOMENTUM ON STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM S&P500 AND CSI300

Saddam Hossain, Beáta Gavurová, Xianghui Yuan, Morshadul Hasan, Judit Oláh

According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO, 2020), the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in late December has spread to 216 countries, territories or regions, causing more than 21.5 (214,435,732) million confirmed casualties and 4,471,650 deaths worldwide on August 26, 2021. Due to the large and continuous spread of the novel coronavirus worldwide, on March 11, 2020, the WHO officially declared it a pandemic (Mahmud et al., 2021). In most economies, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused uncertainty and a temporary closure with positive cases coronavirus. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to assess the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on intraday stock returns. Many investors close their holdings, including the stock market’s assets, thereby influencing the stock market. According to Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), the stock purchase method is appropriate when stock sales have performer poorly during the holding period of past 3-months to the 12-months. Besides, these forms of momentum gain are inappropriate to justify risk-based momentum. In exchange for 1 to 12 months (Moskowitz et al., 2012), the persistence in partially changed in a longer horizon.
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SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATINGS AND ASIAN FINANCIAL MARKETS

Khansa Pervaiz, Zuzana Virglerová, Muhammad Asif Khan, Usman Akbar, József Popp

Sovereign credit rating (SCR) is an important utensil to judge the creditworthiness and competitiveness of an economy, which facilitates the potential investors to gain confidence in making investment decisions across the globe (Yang et al., 2019). It serves as a “credit passport” to investors to gain useful information about the financial markets in terms of dependable share prices, trim financial obstacles along with provocative effective investment (Mclean et al., 2012; Xu et al., 2019; Zhao et al., 2020). Higher SCR signals a relatively higher performance of companies/ economies (Cubas-Díaz et al., 2018). The efficient market hypothesis holds that financial markets are sensitive to new information, where a piece of information is translated into security prices, depending upon the development of such markets.
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TRANSMISSION OF FINANCIAL STRESS SHOCKS BETWEEN THE USA AND THE EURO AREA DURING DIFFERENT BUSINESS CYCLE PHASES

Silvo Dajčman, Alenka Kavkler, Peter Mikek, Dejan Romih

After the global financial crisis and the Great Recession, a large and growing body of literature has examined real business-financial cycle linkages. To this end, Claessens et al. (2012) examined a large database of business and financial stress periods, corroborating that financial crisis periods are often longer and deeper than economic recessions and tend to amplify and prolong the latter. Our research aims to contribute to an understanding of the financial stress-macroeconomy nexus by studying the spillovers of US (euro area) financial stress shocks and their macroeconomic effects (i.e. effects on industrial production, inflation and unemployment) into the euro area (USA). This paper asks whether these effects are contingent on the phase of the business cycle. Traditionally, domestic and international financial stress-business cycle linkages have been investigated within the linear modelling framework.
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