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STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING MARKOV CHAINS ANALYSIS WITH VARYING STATE SPACE ON DATA FROM THE CZECH REPUBLIC

Milan Svoboda, Pavla Říhová

This empirical study deals with the short-term prediction of stock prices on the Czech stock market. Stock movements have been of interest to traders for a long time. Using a wide range of analytical methods, it tries to satisfactorily clarify past and present changes in stock prices. Based on these findings, it attempts to predict the future development of stock prices. Early forecasting allows traders to make capital gains. It is necessary to mention that according to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), stock prices are unpredictable and markets are efficient. This means that the market responds immediately to any new information. This information cannot be predicted, it is randomly sent to the market and therefore the change in the exchange rate is random and the exchange rates perform a so-called ʻrandom walk’. In efficient markets the above-average profits cannot be achieved and according to this theory, other approaches are dysfunctional.
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THE IMPACT OF INTRADAY MOMENTUM ON STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM S&P500 AND CSI300

Saddam Hossain, Beáta Gavurová, Xianghui Yuan, Morshadul Hasan, Judit Oláh

According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO, 2020), the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in late December has spread to 216 countries, territories or regions, causing more than 21.5 (214,435,732) million confirmed casualties and 4,471,650 deaths worldwide on August 26, 2021. Due to the large and continuous spread of the novel coronavirus worldwide, on March 11, 2020, the WHO officially declared it a pandemic (Mahmud et al., 2021). In most economies, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused uncertainty and a temporary closure with positive cases coronavirus. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to assess the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on intraday stock returns. Many investors close their holdings, including the stock market’s assets, thereby influencing the stock market. According to Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), the stock purchase method is appropriate when stock sales have performer poorly during the holding period of past 3-months to the 12-months. Besides, these forms of momentum gain are inappropriate to justify risk-based momentum. In exchange for 1 to 12 months (Moskowitz et al., 2012), the persistence in partially changed in a longer horizon.
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QUANTITATIVE EASING EFFECTS ON EQUITY MARKETS – EVENT STUDY EVIDENCE FROM THE US

Leoš Šafár, Marianna Siničáková

After financial crisis in 2008, both financial and non-financial institutions, governments and monetary authorities as regulators faced great challenges in overcoming recent depression. Although different market participants in different fields reacted and accommodated in their own ways, they relied on monetary authorities more than they did before crisis. Monetary authorities were in position to deliver policies accommodative enough to stimulate economy, or at least reduce damage cumulated during crisis period. From our point of view, first step was pushing interest rates near zero level or lower in order to loosen borrowing conditions. But, on the other hand, monetary authorities approached to changes in legislation in order to prevent situation that caused crisis in the first place. In other words, meeting requirements for getting access to capital become stricter.
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THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF SHARE REPURCHASES – EVIDENCE FROM POLAND

Elżbieta Wrońska-Bukalska, Bogna Kaźmierska-Jóźwiak, Jiří Rozkovec

Share repurchase is a phenomenon that has recently been thoroughly studied around the world. Despite being seen as a substitution for dividends and a tool for distributing excess cash, it would appear that there are more reasons for repurchasing shares and more complex problems than only distributing excess cash to shareholders. The bulk of the research concerns the market reaction to the announcement and implementation of share repurchase programmes. We attempt to ascertain the market reaction to the announcement of share repurchases and to determine the reasons for the reaction. We assume that share repurchase programmes might be explained by the agency theory or signalling theory. We expect that share repurchases convey valuable information to the investors because of the separation of ownership and management. We seek to identify what kind of information the share repurchase conveys.
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BOOTSTRAP TESTING OF TRADING STRATEGIES IN EMERGING BALKAN STOCK MARKETS

Boris Radovanov, Aleksandra Marcikić

Technical analysis is an approach to predicting future prices based on detecting regularity patterns in prices, volume and other market indicators. It ordinarily proceeds by noting market activity in some graphical form and then deducing possible future trends from the observed historical data. This paper stands on the postulate that stock prices manifest various regularities; once these regularities are identified, technical analysts and/or market participants should be consulted about what is likely to happen next.
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STOCHASTIC MODEL OF SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF STOCK PRICES AND ITS PROFITABILITY IN THE CZECH STOCK MARKET

Milan Svoboda

One of the characteristics of stock markets is their permanent fluctuation. Periods of share price growth alternate with periods of share price decrease, both of different lengths. One of the possibilities applied for prediction of share price development and for simulation of this fluctuation is technical analysis (TA).
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Day of the Week Effect in Central European Stock Markets

Daniel Stavárek, Tomáš Heryán

Some decades ago, the Efficient market hypothesis (hereafter EMH) remarkably influenced financial theory and practice. The main contribution to the theory is often attributed to Fama’s survey study where the efficient capital markets were promoted. In efficient markets, asset prices reflect the best estimation of market participant regarding the expected risk and return of the assets while the information currently known about the asset is taken into account. Hence, all assets in the market will be appropriately priced offering adequate level of expected return to risk.
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Momentum Profits and Trading Costs

Mouna Boujelbène Abbes, Younès Boujelbène, Abdelfettah Bouri

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