Podstata a aplikace konvergenčního kritéria stability devizového kurzu

The exchange rate stability criterion belongs to the group of convergence criteria which must be fulfilled by every EU Member State aiming to join the Eurozone and introduce the euro currency. These criteria are focused on stability of prices (inflation), stability of the long-term interest rates, exchange rate stability and fiscal stability measured by the budget deficit ration on GDP and public debt ratio on GDP. The exchange rate stability criterion is the only criterion whose fulfillment conditions are not set explicitly and, thus, it is a subject of many discussions. Moreover, the exchange rate stability criterion requires a change in the economic policy, particularly in the exchange rate regime because participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II is strictly required. This paper aims to assess the exchange rate stability criterion comprehensively emphasizing the core of the criterion and its all essential aspects. Moreover, the paper aims to predict the approach of European Central Bank and European Commission to the evaluation of the criterion fulfillment in the case of the Visegrad countries. After a detailed description of the criterion main aspects and elements, previously published publications along with statements and declarations of all relevant European authorities are surveyed. Finally, all findings allow us to come to the conclusion that it is highly probable that the asymmetric fluctuation band (maximum appreciation deviations from the central parity 15% and maximum depreciation deviations 2.25%) will be applied and short-lasting slightly excessive depreciation deviations will be tolerated. Preferably, the excessive deviations should occur at the beginning of the evaluation period and should be traded-off by a subsequent smooth and stable exchange rate development.